Monday, 13 February 2017

Can we blame the 55 to 70-year-old Crawley citizens for the current housing crisis in the town?



Also known as the ‘Baby Boomer Generation’, these Crawley people were born after the end of the Second World War as the country saw a massive rise in births as they slowly recovered from the economic hardships experienced during wartime.

Throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s, they experienced (whilst in their 20’s, 30’s and 40’s) an unparalleled level of economic growth and prosperity throughout their working lifetime on the back of improved education, government subsidies, escalating property prices and technological developments, they have emerged as a successful and prosperous generation.

...Yet some have suggested these Crawley baby boomers have (and are) making too much money to the detriment of their children, creating a ‘generational economic imbalance’, where mature people benefit from house-price growth while their children are forced either to pay massive rents or pay large mortgages.

Between 2001 and today, average earnings rose by 65%,
but average Crawley house prices rose by 135.2%

The issue of housing is particularly acute with the generation called the Millennials, who are young people born between the mid 1980’s and the late 1990’s. These 18 to 30 years, moulded by the computer and internet revolution, are finding as they enter early adult life, very hard to buy a property, as these ‘greedy’ landlords are buying up all the property to rent out back to them at exorbitant rents ... it’s no wonder these Millennials are lashing out at buy to let landlords, as they are seen as the greedy, immoral, wicked people who are cashing in on a social despair.

Like all things in life, we must look to the past, to appreciate where we are now.

The three biggest influencing factors on the Crawley (and UK) property market in the later half of the 20th Century were, firstly, the mass building of Council Housing in the 1950’s and 60’s. Secondly, for the Tory’s to sell most of those Council Houses off in the 1980’s and finally 15% interest rates in the early 1990’s which resulted in many houses being repossessed. It was these major factors that underpinned the housing crisis we have today in Crawley.

To start with, in 1995 the USA relaxed its lending rules by rewriting the Community Reinvestment Act. This Act saw a relaxation on the Bank’s lending criteria’s as there was pressure on these banks to lend on mortgages in low wage neighbourhoods, as the viewpoint in the USA was that anyone (even someone on the minimum wage) any working class person should be able to buy a home.  Unsurprisingly, the UK followed suit in the early 2000’s, as Banks and Building Society’s relaxed their lending criteria and brought to the market 100% mortgages, even Northern Rock started lending every man and his dog 125% mortgages.


So when we roll the clock forward to today, and we can observe those very same footloose banks from the early/mid 2000’s (that lent 125% with a just note from your Mum and a couple of breakfast cereal tokens), ironically reciting the Bank of England backed hymn-sheet of responsible-lending. On every first time buyer mortgage application, they are now looking at every line on the 20-something’s banks statements, asking if they are spending too much on socialising and holidays ... no wonder these Millennials are afraid to ask for a mortgage (as more often than not after all that – the answer is negative).

Conversely, you have unregulated Buy To Let mortgages. As long as you have a 25% deposit, have a pulse, pass a few very basic yardsticks and have a reasonable job, the banks will literally throw money at you ... I mean Virgin Money are offering 2.99% fixed for 3 years – so cheap!

So, in Part Two, I will continue this emotive article and show you some very interesting findings on why young people aren’t buying property anymore (and it’s not what you think!).

Saturday, 11 February 2017

Crawley Investment - 1 Bedroom Maisonette with 6% yield



With location being the top priority for renters coming to Crawley this one bedroom maisonette would tick many boxes.  Just on the market with local agent, Astons, it is in area very popular for anyone using the FastWay network to Gatwick Airport.  You can view the details by clicking the link below.


The £162,950 price tag seems to be a sensible price that will allow the landlord to achieve higher than a 5% yield.  I have rented many of these properties, the last one at a rent of £775 per month.   
Located close to the M23 junction at Pease Pottage there is unrestricted parking for commuters with a car and just a couple of minutes away you’ll find the bus stops for the FastWay bus to Gatwick Airport via the town centre.  
 The interior is well laid out with a double bedroom and built-in wardrobes to the rear whilst the lounge/dining leads through to the kitchen area that can be separated off by a door.   
Landlords would need to be aware that the 2nd home stamp duty will land them a bill of £5625.  
 If you are considering investing in rental property in Crawley you welcome to contact me at the Martin & Co office in Crawley for comparables or advice.

One Bedroom Maisonette For Sale

Friday, 10 February 2017

Crawley property price rises set to be more restrained in 2017 due to Brexit



While Brexit has not yet had a sizeable impact on the Crawley housing market, my analysis is pointing to the fact that the economic viewpoint still remains uncertain and Crawley property price growth is likely to be more subdued in 2017 - although that isn’t a bad thing so let me explain.

Since the summer, apart from a little wobble of uncertainty a few weeks after the Referendum vote, property values (and the economy), on the whole has outperformed what most people were anticipating. In fact, when I looked at the property prices for our Crawley Borough Council area, these were the results...

October 2016              - rise of 0.17%
September 2016         - drop of 0.67%
August 2016                - rise of 1.07%
July 2016                     - rise of 0.05%
June 2016                    - rise of 1.33%

The UK property market continues to perform robustly (because we can’t just look at Crawley as if in its own little bubble) with annual price growth set to end this year at 6.91% and most South East region property market at 9.1%.

Talking to fellow agents in London, the significant tidal wave of growth seen from 2013 through to 2015 in the capital has subdued over the last six months. However, as that central London house price wave has started to ripple out, agents are starting to see stronger property growth values in East Anglia and the South East regions outside of London, than what is being seen within the M25. So, fellow Crawley landlords and homeowners, is this the time to get your surfboards ready for the London wave?

Well, we in Crawley haven’t really been affected by what is happening in the central London property mega bubble (i.e. Kensington, Chelsea, Marylebone, Mayfair etc.). The property market locally is more driven by sentiment, especially the ‘C’ word ... confidence. The main forces for a weaker Crawley Property market relate to economic uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process, which I believe will impact unhelpfully on consumer confidence in the run up to and just after the serving of the Section 50 Notice by the end of Q1 2017.

In addition, the influence of reforms to the taxation of landlords is expected to result in a reduced demand from buy to let landlords, which will limit upward pressure on property values. However, on the other side of the coin, demand from tenants has been strong, but this has been counterbalanced by a strong supply of rental properties. In my opinion, there is a slight risk of rents not growing as much in 2017 as they have in 2016, but by 2018 they will rise again to counteract Philip Hammond’s changes to tenant fees.

The broader Crawley rental market looks relatively positive with modest rental growth expected and rents might rise further if landlords begin to sell properties in an effort to offset to the impact of tax rises.


So what do I predict will happen to the Crawley housing market in 2017?  In Crawley, I believe price values are expected to fall by 2.3% in 2017 compared to a rise of 8.75% this year, then pick up to growth of 1.9% in 2018, 3.1% in 2019, then 4.2% in 2020 and 6.5% in 2021.

We are at the very start of the Brexit process but it will be interesting to see if these predictions are true the real Crawley housing market over the next couple of years.