Supply and Demand Issues mean Crawley Property Values Rise by 6.3% in the Last 12 Months

A recent set of data from the Land Registry stated that property values in Crawley and the surrounding area were 6.39% higher than 12 months ago and 21.35% higher than January 2015.

Despite the uncertainty over Brexit and the reported stall in the London property market, Crawley property values continue their medium and long-term upward trajectory.  As economics is about supply and demand, the story behind the Crawley property market can also be seen from those two sides of the story.

Looking at the supply issues of the Crawley property market one of the main reasons of this sustained house price growth has been down to of the lack of building new homes.

Our planning laws has meant the amount of land built on in the UK today, only stands at 1.8%.  Nobody wants to see the building of modern ugly carbuncles and high-rise flats in our West Sussex countryside.  But the facts are, with the restrictions on building homes for people to live in, the homes that the youngsters of Crawley need, aren’t being built. 

Looking at the demand side of the equation, one might have thought property values would drop because of Brexit and buyers uncertainty. However, some commenters now believe property values might rise because of Brexit.  Many people are risk adverse, they don’t trust the money markets and the stock market is at an all-time high (ready to pop again?).  The thing about property is its tangible, bricks and mortar, and you can touch it and you can easily understand it.  

The Brits have historically put their faith in bricks and mortar which they expect to rise in value.  Nationally, the value of property has risen by 635.4% since 1984, beating the stock market rise of 593.1%.  Both the stock market and property values go up and down but whilst in the dot com bubble of the early 2000’s, the FTSE100 dropped 126.3% in two years.  The worst drop Crawley saw in property values was just 22.54% in the 2008/9 credit crunch.

Despite the slowdown in the rate of annual property value growth in Crawley to the current 6.39%, it can be argued the headline rate of Crawley property price inflation is holding up well, especially with the squeeze on real incomes, new taxation rules for landlords and the slight ambiguity around Brexit. With mortgage rates at an all-time low and tumbling unemployment, all these factors are largely continuing to help support property values in Crawley (and the UK).

Crawley Homeowners and their £2.29 billion Debt

Over the last 12 months, the UK has decided to leave the EU, have a General Election with a result that didn’t go to plan for Mrs May and to add insult to injury, our American cousins elected Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. It could be said this should have caused some unnecessary unpredictability into the UK property market.

The reality is that the housing and mortgage market (for the time being) has shown a noteworthy resilience. Indeed on the back of the Monetary Policy pursued by the Bank of England there has been a notable improvement of macro-economic conditions! In July for example it was announced that we are witness to the lowest levels of unemployment for nearly 50 years. Furthermore, despite the UK construction industry building 21% more properties than same time the previous year, there has still been a disproportionate increase in demand for housing, particularly in the most thriving areas of the Country. Repossessions too are also at an all-time low at 3,985 for the last Quarter (Q1 2017) from a high of 29,145 in Q1 2009. All these things have resulted in...

Property values in Crawley according to the

Land Registry are 6.4% higher than a year ago

So, what does all this mean for the homeowners and landlords of Crawley, especially in relation to property prices moving forward?

One vital bellwether of the property market (and property values) is the mortgage market. The UK mortgage market is worth £961,653,701,493 (that’s £961bn) and it representative of 13,314,512 mortgages (interestingly, the UK’s mortgage market is the largest in Europe in terms of amount lent per year and the total value of outstanding loans). Uncertainty causes banks to stop lending – look what happened in the credit crunch and that seriously affects property prices.

Roll the clock back to 2007, and nobody had heard of the term ‘credit crunch’, but now the expression has entered our everyday language.  It took a few months throughout the autumn of 2007, before the crunch started to hit the Crawley property market, but in late 2007, and for the following year and half, Crawley property values dropped each month like the notorious heavy lead balloon, meaning …

The credit crunch caused Crawley property values to drop by 22.5%

Under the sustained pressure of the Credit Crunch, the Bank of England realised that the UK economy was stalling in the early autumn of 2008. Loan book lending (sub-prime phenomenon) in the US and across the world was the trigger for this pressure. In a bid to stimulate the British economy there were six successive interest rates drops between October 2008 and March 2009; this resulted in interest rates falling from 5% to 0.5%!

Thankfully, after a period of stagnation, the Crawley property market started to recover slowly in 2011 as certainty returned to the economy as a whole and Crawley property values really took off in 2013 as the economy sped upwards. Thankfully, the ‘fire’ was taken out of the property market in Spring 2015 (otherwise we could have had another boom and bust scenario like we had in the 1960’s, 70’s and 80’s), with new mortgage lending rules. Throughout 2016, we saw a return to more realistic and stable medium term property price growth. Interestingly, property prices recovered in Crawley from the post Credit Crunch 2009 dip and are now 77.8% higher than they were in 2009.

Now, as we enter the summer of 2017, with the Conservatives having been re-elected on their slender majority, the Crawley property market has recouped its composure and in fact, there has been some aggressive competition among mortgage lenders, which has driven mortgage rates down to record lows. This is good news for Crawley homeowners and landlords, over the last few months a mortgage price war has broken out between lenders, with many slashing the rates on their deals to the lowest they have ever offered.  For example, last month, HSBC launched a 1.69% five-year fixed mortgage!

Interestingly, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, the level of mortgage lending had soared to an all-time high in the UK.  

In the Crawley postcodes of RH10 & RH11, if you added up everyone’s mortgage, it would total £2,292,369,322!

Since 1977, the average Bank of England interest rate has been 6.65%, making the current 323 year all time low rate of 0.25% very low indeed. Thankfully, the proportion of borrowers fixing their mortgage rate has gone from 31.52% in the autumn of 2012 to the current 59.3%. If you haven’t fixed – maybe you should follow the majority?

In my modest opinion, especially if things do get a little rocky and uncertainty seeps back in the coming years (and nobody knows what will happen on that front), one thing I know is for certain, interest rates can only go one way from their 300 year ultra 0.25% low level ... and that is why I consider it important to highlight this to all the homeowners and landlords of Crawley. Maybe, just maybe, you might want to consider taking some advice from a qualified mortgage adviser? There are plenty of them in Crawley

Crawleys 3,870 Mortgage Timebombs

According to my research, of the 42,925 properties in Crawley, 17,915 of those properties have mortgages on them. 88.4% of those mortgaged properties are made up of owner-occupiers and the rest are buy to let landlords (with a mortgage).

… but this is the concerning part .. 3,870 of those Crawley mortgages are interest only. My research also shows that, each year between 2017 and 2022, 46 of those households with interest only mortgages will mature, and of those, 12 households a year will either have a shortfall or no way of paying the mortgage off. Now that might not sound a lot – but it is still someone’s home that is potentially at risk.

Theoretically this is an enormous problem for anyone in this situation as their home is at risk of repossession if they don’t have some means to repay these mortgages at the end of the term (the typical term being 25 to 35 years). Banks and Building Societies are under no obligation to lengthen the term of the mortgage and, when deciding whether they are prepared to do so or not, will look at it in the same way as someone coming to them for a new mortgage.

Back in the 1970’s and 1980’s, when endowment mortgages were all the rage, having an endowment meant you were taking out an interest only mortgage and then paying into an endowment policy which would pay the mortgage off (plus hopefully leave some profit) at the end of the 25/35-year term. There were advantages to that type of mortgage as the monthly repayments were lower than with a traditional capital repayment and interest mortgage. Only the interest, rather than any capital, is paid to the mortgage company - but the full debt must be cleared at the end of the 25/35-year term.

Historically plenty of Crawley homeowners bought an endowment policy to run alongside their interest only mortgage. However, because the endowment policy was a stock market linked investment plan and the stock market poorly performed between 1999 and 2003 (when the FTSE dropped 49.72%), the endowments of many of these homeowners didn’t cover the shortfall. Indeed, it left them significantly in debt!

Nonetheless, in the mid 2000’s, when the word endowment had become a dirty word, the banks still sold ‘interest only’ mortgages, but this time with no savings plan, endowment or investment product to pay the mortgage off at the end of the term. It was a case of ‘we’ll sort that nearer the time’ as property prices were on the rampage in an upwards direction!

Thankfully, the proportion of interest only mortgages sold started to decline after the Credit Crunch, as you can see looking at the graph below, from a peak of 43.81% of all mortgages to the current 8.71%.

Increasing the length of the mortgage to obtain more time to raise the money has gradually become more difficult since the introduction of stricter lending criteria in 2014, with many mature borrowers considered too old for a mortgage extension.

Crawley people who took out interest only mortgages years ago and don’t have a strategy to pay back the mortgage face a ticking time bomb. It would either be a choice of hastily scraping the money together to pay off their mortgage, selling their property or the possibility of repossession (which to be frank is a disturbing prospect).

I want to stress to all existing and future homeowners who use mortgages to go in to them with your eyes open. You must understand, whilst the banks and building societies could do more to help, you too have personal responsibility in understanding what you are signing yourself up to.